Evidence: risk

40 articles. Distilled findings; bold = already cited in the docs.

Global rangeland degradation and desertification (news) — A new United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) report finds that up to 50 percent of Earth's rangelands, which cover over half of the land surface, are now degraded, and that…
Record atmospheric CO2 increase 2024 (news) — NOAA scientists report that atmospheric carbon dioxide rose by a record amount in 2024, with the annual average at Mauna Loa Observatory reaching 424.61 ppm, the highest on record. Scientists…
Arctic tundra carbon emissions (news) — A federal report finds that the Arctic tundra, historically a carbon sink, has become a net source of planet-warming emissions. Rising temperatures are thawing permafrost, which releases trapped…
[cited] Extreme heat risk in Europe (news) (needs verification) — Europe is experiencing its second extreme heatwave in two months, with temperatures above 44°C, red heat alerts across several countries, and reported drownings and heat-related deaths. The article…
[cited] Peatland restoration for climate mitigation (news) — Dr Peter Jones, nicknamed 'The Bogfather,' has spent 30 years restoring peatlands in Wales, which store 30% of the nation's land-based carbon despite covering only 4% of its surface. Around 90% of…
EU nature restoration plans and funding (news) — EU countries must submit draft nature restoration plans to the European Commission by 1 September, following a summer of record heatwaves, wildfires, and drought. Researchers from Biodiversa+ argue…
El Nino heat-related mortality projections (news) — Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab estimate that the unusually high temperatures linked to the current El Nino could cause about 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between…
Marine heatwaves and European fisheries (news) — European seas recorded their hottest summer months since reliable satellite data began in 1982, with the Bay of Biscay logging 186 marine heatwave days by late August, more than three out of every…
Record global ocean temperatures 2026 (news) (needs verification) — On 21 June 2026, the Copernicus Marine Service measured a global average sea surface temperature of 21.0°C, and the Copernicus Climate Change Service independently recorded a new daily high for that…
Hurricane Isaias Gulf Coast landfall (news) — Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, as a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, after weakening from major hurricane status. It brought damaging winds, flooding,…
Tropical Storm Isaias and El Niño (news) (needs verification) — Tropical Storm Isaias formed off eastern Mexico on Wednesday and is forecast to become the first Atlantic hurricane of the season since 1905, possibly reaching major Category 3 strength before…
Isle of Man coastal overtopping warning (news) (needs verification) — A yellow weather warning for coastal overtopping was issued for the Isle of Man as strong south-westerly winds were forecast to push waves over exposed coasts and promenades during the next two high…
Record tides flooding coastal California (news) (needs verification) — Coastal California is bracing for days of flooding from potentially record-breaking tides, with the National Weather Service forecasting significant flooding in San Diego and Orange counties through…
Record California coastal flooding and El Niño (news) — Record-breaking high tides flooded California's coast from San Diego to the Bay Area this week, submerging streets, homes and transit routes. Climate scientist Daniel Swain attributes the surge to…
Southern California wildfires and evacuations (news) (needs verification) — The Norte Fire in Orange County, California, grew to 570 acres with 5% containment and damaged or destroyed six homes, prompting evacuation orders. It is one of 10 fires burning across the state,…
California wildfires amid Santa Ana winds (news) — Several wildfires ignited across California on Thursday during a Santa Ana wind event. The largest, the Henderson fire at Camp Pendleton, burned over 1,000 acres with 0% containment and forced…
Indonesia's worst forest fires in a decade (news) (needs verification) — Four people fighting a wildfire in Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park in East Java were killed and two others seriously burned, as Indonesia faces its worst forest fires in more than a decade.…
Indonesia 2026 wildfire haze crisis (news) — Satellite monitoring by Nusantara Atlas shows Indonesian wildfires burned more than 1.9 million hectares in the first nine months of 2026, 38 percent more than at the same point in 2019. Most of the…
Copernicus monitoring of 2026 European wildfires (news) — Europe's 2026 wildfire season started early after the warmest June on record in western Europe and ran into September. About 686,000 hectares burnt in the EU by 30 September, roughly twice the…
Pacific Northwest wildfire smoke transport (news) — NASA visualizations track smoke from Pacific Northwest wildfires between mid-July and August 5, 2026, using the GEOS-CAM model's brown carbon aerosol optical depth. Abnormally hot, dry conditions and…
Southern California wind-driven wildfires (news) (needs verification) — Several wind-driven brush fires burned across southern California, forcing evacuations near Malibu, where the Bryson Fire grew to about 81 hectares and threatened a juvenile detention facility. Fires…
GWIS European wildfire seasonal statistics (platform) (needs verification) — The Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) statistics viewer shows seasonal wildfire trends by country and region, with Europe as the example. It plots weekly and cumulative burned area, CO2…
Rapid extreme weather attribution (platform) (needs verification) — World Weather Attribution (WWA) combines weather observations and climate models to determine how climate change affects the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. Its studies also…
North Atlantic marine heatwave extremes (study) (needs verification) — The study uses ensemble boosting on a coupled Earth system model to generate physically consistent alternative evolutions of the 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave. The boosted ensemble produced…
Subsurface-intensified marine heatwaves (study) (needs verification) — This study uses reanalysis data to examine subsurface-intensified (Type-1) and surface (Type-2) marine heatwaves in tropical oceans. Type-1 events are more frequent, concentrated near the equator,…
U.S. sea level rise projections (study) (needs verification) — This NOAA-published report, produced by the U.S. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, projects sea level rise to 2150 by decade, including vertical land…
Compound coastal flooding under climate change (study) (needs verification) — This study examines how compound coastal flooding, driven by concurrent precipitation and storm surge along the Pacific coast of North America, may change under RCP8.5 climate projections through…
Red Sea coral reef metabolism (study) (needs verification) — Day and night Net Ecosystem Calcification (NEC) and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) were measured on two Red Sea reefs across seasons, including the 2023 summer marine heatwave and bleaching event…
Probabilistic marine heatwave detection (study) (needs verification) — Marine heatwaves are extended periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature that threaten marine ecosystems and coastal economies. A probabilistic approach estimates a probabilistic climatology…
Multi-definition marine heatwave database (study) — MHW-MAD is a global daily database of marine heatwave and cold spell metrics built from the ESA SST CCI satellite record (1982–2024) at 0.05° resolution. Instead of fixing a single definition, it…
Time of emergence of marine heatwaves (study) — Using 43 years of satellite SST data and 21 CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, this first global time-of-emergence analysis of marine heatwave (MHW) characteristics finds that about 48% of the…
2026 Southwest Europe wildfire intensity anomalies (study) (needs verification) — Using MODIS Collection 6.1 active-fire data and spatial statistics (Moran's I, Getis-Ord Gi*, median centre, standard deviational ellipse), the study compares 2003–2025 wildfire patterns in Spain,…
Drivers of boreal lightning-ignited wildfires (study) (needs verification) — Using a quasi-experimental dataset of 5,251 paired lightning strikes that did or did not ignite fires across global boreal forests, the study finds that short-term fire weather, rather than lightning…
Regional Fire Weather Index Recalibration (study) — The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) was built for boreal forests and often misses wind-driven fire behavior elsewhere. A new study recalibrates it for San Diego County's chaparral, where downslope…
Prenatal wildfire smoke and autism (study) (needs verification) — A cohort study of 893,212 mother-child pairs in US Medicaid (2007–2014) found that prenatal exposure to wildfire-attributable PM2.5 was associated with higher risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD)…
Power shutoffs, wildfire smoke, respiratory health (study) — A case-crossover study of California zip codes from 2013 to 2019 found that severe public safety power shutoffs (PSPS) were associated with 6% higher odds of same-day respiratory emergency visits and…
Future US wildfire risk scenarios (study) (needs verification) — A county-level framework combining wildfire hazard, population and property exposure, wildland-urban interface (WUI) extent, and social vulnerability is used to project wildfire risk across the…
Permafrost wildfire reactive organic carbon pollution (study) — Canada's record 2023 wildfires, about 70% of which burned in permafrost regions, emitted roughly 15 ± 8 TgC of volatile organic compounds, only ~2% of the 608 ± 148 TgC of inorganic carbon released.…
Black carbon and India heatwave intensification (study) (needs verification) — Observations and chemistry-coupled regional climate model (WRF-Chem) simulations show that aerosols, especially black carbon, intensified India's deadly 2015 heatwave. Aerosols raised daily maximum…
Climate attribution of African extreme weather (study) (needs verification) — A study examines 33 of the most impactful heatwaves, floods and cyclones to hit Africa between 2019 and 2024, using the analogue-based ClimaMeter method to compare temperature, precipitation and wind…